The Petrodollar, Foreign Exchange Reserves, and Inflation vs Deflation

No commodity has shaped the modern global economy more profoundly than petroleum. Oil is not just fuel for cars, trucks and planes: it is the raw material for plastics, synthetic fibers, solvents, asphalt and thousands of industrial products.

After the Nixon Shock of 1971 ended the dollar’s link to gold, and the 1973–74 Arab oil embargo pushed the price of a barrel up roughly fourfold, Washington moved to bind the largest oil exporter more closely to the dollar system. In 1974 Washington drew up plans for joint US–Saudi commissions on economic cooperation, chaired on the US side by the Secretary of the Treasury, and on security cooperation; the US supplied arms and security ties, and Saudi Arabia’s central bank built up large investments in US Treasury securities and other US assets. No published treaty ever obliged Saudi Arabia or OPEC to sell oil only for dollars: oil was already priced in dollars, and the 1974 arrangements entrenched that habit by giving the dollars earned a deep, safe market to return to. Saudi Arabia still held $142 billion of US Treasury securities in July 2026.

The effect was lasting. Because almost every barrel of oil was priced in dollars, every importing country — Japan, Germany, India, China, Brazil, everyone — had to maintain large dollar reserves. The dollar’s reserve currency status, threatened by the end of Bretton Woods, was now structurally reinforced by the global oil trade. This is what economists call the petrodollar system.

The arrangement is under gradual pressure, not collapse. Reports since 2022 that Saudi Arabia would price some oil sales to China in yuan have never been officially confirmed by either government. Sanctioned exporters such as Russia (Section 1.18: Sanctions — Finance as a Weapon) have every reason to sell oil for currencies other than the dollar, and since July 2022 the RBI has allowed India’s trade to be invoiced and settled in rupees. Yet the world’s benchmark crude prices are still quoted in dollars, and the large majority of oil trade is still settled in them, though no official statistic measures the exact share. What is happening is a slow erosion at the edges, not a switch.

Foreign exchange reserves are holdings of foreign currencies, gold, and other internationally accepted assets maintained by a country’s central bank — essentially a national savings account held in foreign currency. Countries hold them to defend their currency from speculative attack, pay for imports during export shortfalls, service foreign-currency debt, signal financial stability, and maintain a buffer in crises. Of the world’s roughly $13.2 trillion in official foreign-currency reserves (gold excluded), 56.7% was held in US dollars in mid-2026, according to the IMF.

Inflation is when prices rise over time, meaning each unit of money buys a little less than it used to. Deflation is the opposite — prices falling over time. Inflation is most commonly measured using the CPI (Consumer Price Index), which tracks the price of a representative basket of everyday goods and services — food, housing, transport, clothing, healthcare — over time, each weighted by its share of household spending.

A small, steady amount of inflation — around 2% annually — is considered healthy in most modern economies. It encourages spending rather than hoarding, supports manageable debt servicing, and gives central banks room to cut interest rates if the economy weakens. Deflation, counterintuitively, is often more dangerous than moderate inflation: when prices are falling, consumers delay purchases waiting for lower prices, businesses delay investment, and the economy can spiral into stagnation.

How inflation is measured. Headline inflation is the change in the price of the whole basket. Core inflation leaves out food and energy, whose prices swing with harvests, weather and wars, to show the underlying trend. In June 2022 US headline CPI inflation was 9.1% while core was 5.9%: the 3.2-point gap was food and energy. The US has two main gauges. The CPI, from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, measures what households pay out of pocket. The PCE price index (personal consumption expenditures), from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, also covers spending made on households’ behalf, such as medical care paid for by employers and government programs, uses a different formula and weights, and is the index behind the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. The two can differ by half a point or more:

Nominal values are in today’s dollars; real values are adjusted for prices. A 4% pay raise in a year of 3.4% inflation is a real raise of 1.04 ÷ 1.034 − 1 = 0.58%. The same correction turns nominal interest rates into real ones (Section 1.5: Gold — The Timeless Monetary Anchor) and nominal GDP into real GDP (Section 1.3: GDP — Measuring the Size of an Economy).

Why prices rise. Demand-pull inflation happens when total spending grows faster than the economy can produce: more money chasing the same goods. Cost-push inflation happens when production costs jump (oil, wages, shipping) and firms pass them on even though demand has not grown. A supply shock is a sudden cost-push event such as a war or a failed harvest. The difference matters: higher interest rates cool demand directly, but they cannot pump oil or grow wheat, so against a supply shock they work only by slowing everything else.

India measures it differently. The RBI’s target is 4% with a tolerance band of 2 percentage points either side, retained in March 2026 for April 2026 to March 2031, and it is set on headline CPI, food included. Food and beverages carry 36.75% of the weight in the new CPI series (base year 2024, first published for January 2026), down from 45.86% in the old 2012 series. With more than a third of the basket in food, a weak monsoon can push up headline inflation, and with it the RBI’s decisions. The Wholesale Price Index (WPI), rebased to 2022-23 from June 2026, tracks goods prices at the producer and wholesale stage; it signals cost pressure early but is not the policy target.